Some thoughts of the Iranian opposition. This is the view of people who are now in real danger. They are being hunted, so all their expressions are easy to understand. Translation from the Mamlekate channel. 

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The Trump-imposed ceasefire and spokes in the wheels of the Israeli military machine against the Khamenei regime. 

Israel launched Operation People Like a Lion on June 13. 12 days have passed, but the country has not yet achieved three key strategic goals: neutralizing the nuclear threat, destroying long-range ballistic missiles, and eliminating the terrorist threat from the Islamic Republic. 

The very same “existential triad of threats” that Netanyahu spoke about has not been completely eliminated. Yes, it is seriously weakened, but not destroyed. 

Just at the moment when Israel was waging a war with the expectation of destroying the system and changing the regime, Trump suddenly – for some reasons of his own – stopped the Israeli offensive. This truce is unlikely to last long: the threat from the Islamic Republic has not gone away.

Of the 13 senior regime commanders, nine have been killed by Israel. But the command structure of the Guard Corps has not been destroyed.

From the beginning of the war until June 22, Iran launched at least 600 ballistic missiles at Israel. Only 60 of them reached their targets; the rest were intercepted. According to the JINSA Institute, by June 23, Iran had about 400 missiles left in its arsenal out of the approximately 2,000 it had before the war.

The strike on June 22 was especially painful, when out of 29 Iranian missiles, at least 10 penetrated the Israeli missile defense system and reached their targets. This showed that despite the attacks on launchers and other infrastructure, the threat is still real.

As for the nuclear threat, even after the bombing of Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, one cannot be sure that it has been eliminated. Even if Fordow is destroyed, the equipment could have been moved in advance. To talk about a complete victory, we need to know that all 408 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, all centrifuges have been destroyed, and there is no possibility of continuing enrichment. 

And the best scenario for Israel is a change of regime in Tehran. Only then can we talk about the real elimination of the nuclear threat. 

As for terrorism, it cannot be defeated in 12 days of war. Even a temporary truce does not cancel the slogan “Death to Israel”. The anti-Israeli essence of the regime remains intact. 

So, if Israel accepts this truce, it will only be in a weakened form. All that Operation People Like a Lion achieved was a temporary rollback of Iranian nuclear and missile programs, but not their elimination. Trump, continuing to put pressure on Israel, risks repeating the “Libyan scenario”. 

The main conclusion: the threats from the regime have not been dismantled, they have only been pushed back. Israel needs to continue the campaign. Why did Trump insist on a ceasefire? Because, after seeing Tehran’s weak and limited response (an attack on the al-Udeid base that was reported in advance and where there were no casualties), he decided that this was the perfect moment to stop — so that America would not be drawn into a major war. 

But, no matter how you look at it, this ceasefire hit the momentum of the Israeli operation. It was a pass to Tehran. Call it pragmatism or treason, but in the midst of the campaign, Trump put a spoke in the wheels of the Israeli army. 

Trump should not have said that he does not seek regime change — even if this is true. In a strategic sense, such signals are stupid. 

He could have given Israel a little more time, warning that this is not indefinite. That the operation must be completed quickly — but on Israel’s terms, not on its schedule. 

The only thing that could justify this ceasefire is if Israel actually hit a target like Khamenei himself. Otherwise, the main obstacle remains.

The main problem: no one understands what America’s ultimate goal is in this war. Israel is the only one acting strategically. It was already on the verge of destroying the entire system of the regime. A little more – and the end:

• elimination of Khamenei
• attacks on the symbols of power
• popular uprising
• internal collapse of the regime.

And it is at this point that Trump says: “Let’s stop.” Either he does not understand, or he does not want to understand.

And yes, I’m tired of listening to all these “Trumpologists” who explain Donald’s every move as a brilliant game, unlike the “naive Israelis” and others. If you live in the US, live. But don’t pretend to be experts in international politics. This is not your profile. Close your YouTube shows and do what you know. 

There is a gulf between analysis and blind justification. 

I said from the very beginning: Trump cannot be trusted. If America’s interests require it, they will crush us with three trucks. If necessary, they will help us overthrow the regime. But Israel is the main player. And it was they who changed the rules of the game. 

Trump was stalling for time and waiting for the regime to surrender. And in Jerusalem they realized: there was a week until the bomb. And they began to act. 

There is no faith in the ceasefire imposed by Trump. It will not bring salvation to either Tehran or its ideology. But giving the regime a break is a mistake. Every hour of silence is oxygen for Khamenei.

Everything else is an attempt to justify the inevitable. But the truth is that Israel has not ended this war. And the chain of attacks will probably continue.

Israel’s strategy is precise, calculated, and thought out. And if the regime does collapse, it will be thanks to Israel and the Iranian people. Not Trump.

And finally: the window of opportunity is not eternal. If Trump gives the regime a break again, and it manages to organize a massacre inside the country, let all the “Trumpophiles” tell us later how this fits into their grand theories. We will listen.